Won't It Make My Red State Blue?

The most under-reported story of the this past election was the stealth victory for the Republican Party. In their analysis, Fox News, CNN, and the major news networks focused on the Democratic gubenatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and the defeat of the Schwartzenegger initiatives in California. Although pundits tried to spot a trend, there was none. Democratic governors in both states were replaced by Democratic governors with the same margin of victory as in previous years, both races extremely close. And California....well....is California. California is a blue state, and short of some cataclysmic politcal event, will contiue to be a blue state notwithstanding temporary aberrations in the the governor's office.

The big story is Ohio. No Republican has ever won a Presidential election without carrying Ohio. No Democrat can carry Ohio without winning Mahoning County by more than 64%. Regardless of scandals swirling around Columbus, cointgate, and Governor Taft, reform Issues 2, 3, 4, and 5 went down to defeat. Couple that with African-American independent candidate, Jay Williams, being elected the mayor of Youngstown, the Democrats had better start re-thinking their Ohio strategy.

The defeated issues were a blatant attempt by the left wing of the Democratic Party to change the political landscape in Ohio after the last election. A stunning 96% of the funding for these issues came from out of state; among the largest contributors: MoveOn.org (George Soros), People for the American Way, the Sierra Club; and the large labor unions. On the eve of the election, polls showed all but one of these issues as passing by large margins. They lost, and they lost big. The margin of defeat in Mahoning County for some of them was between 20-30%. The figures are stunning particularly because the television ads portrayed them as antidotes to the corrupt Taft administration. Lesson: the Columbus scandals have attached to Taft, but not to the Republican Party as a whole.

Jump to Youngstown. State Senator Bob Hagan is a long time political vote getter in Mahoning County with an old line Democratic name. Hagan is considered a Kennedy style liberal in the best tradition of Howard Dean's party, and received heavy duty union support. Jay Williams, a young, sharp African American, not only beat the front runner Hagan, but did it handily. Although a registered Democrat, Williams ran as an independent. The Youngstown State University Jambar called him "a Republican in sheeps clothing". Most of his support came from the business community. His resume includes a degree in Business, Vice-President of First Place Bank, and, as of late, the Director of the Youngstown Community Development Agency.

Williams' victory highlights the changes in Mahoning County. His victory is a continuation of the chink in the Democratic armor of Mahoning County that was started during the last years of Jim Traficant's tenure in in Congress. It reflects weakened labor unions, a more educated population, and a large number of those remaining in the Mahoning Valley who are entrpreneurs and work for themselves. Equally important, Williams was able to mobilize African American, evangelical Christians, who came out in large numbers to vote for him.

What does this mean for the Democratic Party nationally? It means that it cannot take the Mahoning Valley for granted in its effort to turn Ohio from a red state to a blue state. What was a given in the Mahoning Valley for 60 years is now a jump all. In the last Presidential election, it was the Mahoning Valley that put Bush over the top by limiting the valley Democratic vote to 62.34%, more than a percent below the magic 64% number. Some of the outcome can be attributed to pork coming into the Valley. The Convocation Center, the 711 Connector, 2 Federal Office Buildings, and Federal funds to redo Federal Street sprung from the largesse of the Republicans, and Jim Traficant's ability to play one party off the other.

With an African-American, business oriented mayor in Youngstown, and the strong possibility that the current Republican, African-American Ohio Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell, will be the next Governor of Ohio, I suspect that the Democrats will be singing "Won't It Make My Red State Blue?" for sometime to come.

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