The New Mahoning Valley

One of the anecdotal indicators of the economy is traffic. If traffic in the Mahoning Valley acts as a local barometer, things must be booming around here. I remember when Route 11 was first constructed. You could shoot a canon up the freeway and hit nothing. It was a consolation prize for Kirwin’s Ditch (the lake to river canal), and for many years it seemed the canal would actually have more traffic!!!

Now it's packed. Bumper to bumper during rush hours between Columbiana and Mahoning Avenue; and from 680 to Route 82, it is extremely busy pretty much any time of the day. Have you driven to Akron on I-76 lately? Where are all of those people going?

It’s not only car traffic. There are lots and lots of trucks. It seems like every day I am passing an oversized load with an interesting piece of heavy equipment tethered to its flat bed. I suspect that most of it is headed to the new Vand M pipe mill and other related Marcellus Gas Shale endeavors. Some of this stuff is mammoth.  It also goes to show that if Obama would call off his EPA dogs, the energy industry would be the catalyst for a massive surge in American economic growth. (Don't hold your breath).

Since the shutting of the steel mills, the Mahoning Valley has always had a high unemployment rate. It continues to be high and actually ticked up last month. Much of that is due to a large number of people living here who for all intents and purposes, are unemployable. That remains one of the biggest challenges for the Valley.  

The latest census shows a massive drop in our population. Stark County (Canton) has passed Mahoning County in population. But there is a big BUT. Of all the areas in Ohio outside of Columbus, the Youngstown-Warren area is actually generating jobs. GM is working three shifts. V and M is the largest industrial construction project in the country right now. Call center jobs have poured into the area. And a myriad of small support businesses are expanding. All of this is happening at time when the rest of the country is in crisis. I suspect that if you look at population trends over the last 10 years, the county lost most of the population at the beginning of the decade.  I'd bet a quarter that if you look at the last three years, the population would actually be increasing, and getting younger.

The foundation of future economic development for the Mahoning Valley lies in two areas. Both state and local officials have worked hard to move some technology jobs to the area, and it is succeeding. The Business Incubator is more successful than I thought possible. Next on the list is the center for international trade currently under construction. Ten years ago I would have laughed at the idea. Not now. It will take time, but these core projects, along with Youngstown State University, are reaching critical mass.

The other area is the Marcellus and Utica shale deposits and natural gas found therein. Even those that are signing those lucrative gas leases don’t fully understand how much money is going to be pumped into this area. Although many of our local banks are shaky, when the drilling commences and those royalty checks start rolling in… local banks will be flush with deposits. Rich banks make for increased lending, assuming banks like Farmers, First Place, Cortland, and Home Savings can resist being takeover targets as national banks eye those deposits. We should be preparing to defend our local banks three to five years down the road and keep the gas royalty money local.

When my son graduated from Ohio State with his Masters in Accounting degree, we debated where he should go. I told him to come home. The era of big steel is finally dead in the Mahoning Valley, and it’s about time. There is a new era in the Mahoning Valley. Maybe it’s not so apparent to many who live here, but I can see it. I can feel it. The challenge to the area is to put aside its normal propensity for crooked politics, and its addiction to parochial political subdivisions that worked well in 1910, but are irrelevant now.  One of the challenges is frame a modern political structure for the 21st Century.  The challenge can be met with proper leadership, and those who live here realizing what a precious opportunity this area has been given midst the largest national economic downturn since the Great Depression.

If you would have told me that they would ever build another pipe mill along the Mahoning River, I would have laughed in your face. I am not laughing now. Seeing those cranes outside of Girard reaching for the sky, seeing all of that traffic on the freeways, seeing all of those oversized loads, seeing new building in downtown Youngstown, seeing technology companies locating here…that makes me happy!!  It is the Mahoning Valley resurgent.