How Long Can the Mahoning Valley Stay Democratic?

Local Democratic elected officials are in a pickle. The Mahoning Valley is obviously a bed of union activism, but not as much as it used to be. Outside of GM and the public employees unions, there isn’t a whole lot going on. As the area shifts to being a center of natural gas and oil production, the question arises as to when the area will actually shift Republican.

Forbes Magazine mentioned the wealth that will be pouring into Eastern Ohio over the next ten years, but it is from a product which is not only frowned upon by today’s Democratic Party, it is downright demonized. The stated intent of Barack Obama and Democrats like him is to put the fossil fuel business out of business.

An article in the Youngstown Vindicator unintentionally demonstrated the dilemma facing local Democrats. Jason Wilson, son of former Congressman Charlie Wilson, currently represents the Ohio 30th Senate District in Columbus. But he has been redistricted out as a result of Ohio’s loss of population. Unlike the Feds, in Ohio you have to actually live in the district you represent. The districts have been consolidated and the lines have been redrawn. Wilson now lives in the new Ohio 33rd District whose state senator is the very popular Joe Schiavoni. Wilson doesn’t have a chance in hell of beating him, and is in the untenable position of having to move to another district before the November election to qualify to run.

The article also stated that Wilson voted more with Republicans than any other Democratic state senator. What the article didn’t say is why. The Democratic district represented by Wilson may be Democrat, but in name only. For all intents and purposes, the fate of the coal industry, and now the natural gas and oil industry, dominates the issues facing the district. What these folks are realizing is that the potential of billions of dollars flowing into the region, and into people’s pockets, is at risk as the EPA begins to move to prevent fracking and any more carbon fuel production.

Not that there isn’t a core constituency in the area that feeds the uber liberal beast. Bob Hagan serves these folks and is a true believer. He defines his constituency as uneducated, unskilled, senior, and government assistance recipients…and that is almost a direct quote to a question I asked him several weeks ago.

On the other hand, the balance of local Democrats, even some of the union folks, is Blue Dog Democrat. These folks are basically conservative. They believe in gun rights. Many of them are Catholic and send their kids to parochial schools. They are anti-abortion. They are hawks on American national security. They are hawks on immigration policy. Where they fall into the Democratic camp is on union rights. And if you ask them why they are Democrats, the usual answer is my mother and father were Democrats.  Unfortunately, this ain't your Mom and Dad's Democratic Party. 

As the local economy begins to boom on the back of fossil fuel production, not only from direct drilling but from all of the manufacturing that will pour into the area as a result, the question is will union loyalty and familial ties trump a Democratic Party overtly hostile to the development of coal, natural gas, and oil?

Locals have yet to realize the magnitude of the shift happening in the Valley’s economy. They have yet to comprehend how much money will be pouring in here. When they do, unless the Democrats shift their whacked environmental policy, I suspect that even the local unions will have to seriously reconsider the relationship between their traditional political allegiances and move to a party that will ultimately best protect their livelihood and well being, one that encourages the development of all kinds of energy...not the rationing of energy.

Whether that will be in the form of states like West Virginia whose Senator Joe Manchin is Democrat in name only…or whether it will shift Republican like many of the right to work southern states, has yet to be seen. Whichever way it goes, the Democratic stranglehold on the Mahoning Valley may be in play, and the local Republicans should be prepared to take advantage.